[Assam] India adrift or crumbling like the Roman empire? BUT , the Nation of Assam is rising like the Phoenix!

[Bartta Bistar]

India's Geo-Strategic Policy - India Adrift?
http://desicritics.org/2007/04/09/085300.php

April 09, 2007
Cynical Nerd <http://cynical-nerd.nationalinterest.in/>

Sixty years ago, India won its independence after centuries of turmoil,
fragmentation and foreign rule. Its independence was the outcome of a
freedom struggle rooted in our civilizational ethos that involved ordinary
men and women from different regions, castes and linguistic backgrounds
united in a nationalist vision of a resurgent India. Today, one sees the
reverse. The seeds of division sown by the colonial rulers and Christian
missionaries have resurfaced. If left unchecked, we fear that India would
suffer the fate of a Yugoslavia or Soviet Union given prevailing trends that
have implicit and an unstated American hand.

There is much to be analyzed about the inept handling of terrorism, national
security and geo-strategic issues by the current UPA administration led by
Sonia Antonia Maino "Gandhi" - the de facto ruler today. The mainstream
Indian media be it the Indian Express, The Times of India, The Hindu,
CNN-IBN and NDTV sidestep pressing national issues and focus on non-issues.
We would like to present a different perspective as food for thought. In the
interests of brevity, we would limit ourselves to a few issues this time.
However, there would be follow-up posts that would address the remainder.

*The Maoist Belt:*

The Prime Minister himself reported that the Naxalites/Maoists are the
single most dangerous threat to India's internal security now spread over
180 districts across 16 states. It was the Marxist allies of the current
administration that forced the UPA to support a firm Maoist hold in
Kathmandu through a coalition arrangement. One can now anticipate a Maoist
corridor that stretches from Nepal, to Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh,
Orissa and Madhya Pradesh - a pincer directed at the heart of the Indian
Union! The NDA had clamped down heavily on the Maoists as witnessed in
Andhra Pradesh. The current UPA however was soft on the Naxalites with sorry
consequences.

Following the brutal assassination of Jharkand MP Sunil Mahato on March 4,
the daring attack in Chattisgarh on March 15 killing more than fifty
policemen indicates that the threat has worsened. Yet, very little has been
done to counter the Maoists ideologically and militarily. The March 15th
attack was well planned in the wee hours of morning and included the use of
grenades and rocket launchers. The police under fire were caught unaware and
sent SOS messages to nearby Central Reserve Police Force outfits. It failed
to yield a quick response, indicating a lack of coordination between Center
and the Naxal-hit states.

Even as the government's response is in disarray, the Maoists have increased
their precision of their attacks and are rapidly evolving into a highly
organized military force. Per Ajai Sahni of the Institute of Conflict
Management, "Maoist ambitions in India now extend to the farthest reaches of
the country, and this is not just a fantasy or an aspiration, but a
strategy, a projection, a plan and a programme under implementation. A
multiplicity of Maoist documents testify to the meticulous detail in which
the contours of the current and protracted conflict have been envisaged, in
order to "Intensify the peoples' war throughout the country". The Maoists
have now vowed to attack every Special Export Zone (SEZ) and take the fight
to urban areas.

The ideological sympathizers of the Maoists in the "civil society" such as
the People's Union for Civil Liberties, while silent against the Maoist
atrocities turn up with their human rights "excess" by the State only when
the heat turns against the Naxalites. There is no critical analysis in the
Indian media about the foreign-financed NGOs who serve as virtual fronts for
the Naxalites.

*Assam and the North-East:*

Mizoram and Nagaland only became Christian majority regions under Jawaharlal
Nehru who allowed unfettered missionary activity. Under the Congress, Assam
is now poised to become a Muslim majority region due to a policy of drift
with regards to the unfettered influx of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh
since 1974!

There has been a resurgence of terrorism in the North East since the UPA
came to power. The earlier NDA had the ULFP on the run. But no longer.

In Assam, the recent success of the ULFA-sponsored "bandh" which brought
life to a standstill has yet again demonstrated the power of the
secessionists under the current regime. It is now clear that they used the
time during ceasefire to recoup and rejuvenate and hit back in the form of
multiple terrorist attacks. The gruesome killing of more than 60 people on
January 5th and the increased focus on soft targets including children
reveals the ruthlessness of the organization.

Several NGOs such as the People's Consultative Group, People's Committee for
Peace Initiatives in Asom, Manan Adhikar Surakha Samiti and 'intellectuals'
of the like of Indira Goswami organize protests and condemn the security
forces but never raise their voice against ULFA's violence. These
organizations that often act as mediators with the terrorists oppose the
migrant workers from Bihar and Nepal but never condemn illegal Bangladeshi
migration. They pretty much follow the line of ULFA, which no longer
considers the numerically more significant Bangladeshis as "illegal
immigrant", for their wrath is selectively directed against Hindi-speaking
peoples.

Succeeding Congress administrations had clearly turned a blind eye towards
illegal immigration only to appease the Muslim vote bank and return to
power. 32% of Assamese population is now Bengali Muslim. The state would
soon be a Muslim-majority one. Pakistan, Bangladesh and China want a
destabilized North-East. B. Raman retired RAW chief asserts that the ULFA
had obtained help from ISI since 2004 sending their cadres for training in
Pakistan via Dhaka.

Bangladesh, keen on a Muslim-majority state in India's north-east, shelters
top ULFA leaders such as Paresh Barua. Several Islamist organizations like
the Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Muslim
United Liberation Front of Assam and Muslim Liberation Army, have heightened
their anti-India rhetoric with calls for the formation of an Islamist state
that includes Assam, Bangladesh and parts of Bihar and West Bengal with the
active support of ISI and DGFI (the Bangladeshi external intelligence
organization).

*Sri Lanka:*

India under Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Vajpayee had Sri Lanka firmly
within it's sphere of influence. But not so under Manmohan Singh!

Sri Lanka has slowly but steadily moved out of India's control under the
UPA. Our hands off approach has created space for the United States to
enter. The U.S. is keen to invest in Trincomalee as a strategic port to
dominate the Bay of Bengal and contain India. It has signed a de facto
ten-year defense treaty with the Sri Lankan government, a step that would
never have happened under Indira Gandhi, Rajiv or Vajpayee. The American
ambassador in Colombo is popularly known as the Viceroy! Meanwhile, the
Secretary of the Sri Lankan Ministry of Defence is an American citizen. The
head of the Sri Lankan army is an American resident. The President's other
brother and influential policy wonk in Sri Lanka today is an American
resident as well. Sri Lanka is now a client state of the United States and
its recent successes in the battlefield against the LTTE owes much to
American intelligence support. The UPA administration has no Sri Lanka
policy leaving India's southern flank exposed to foreign domination.

The UPA furthermore has turned a blind eye towards the gross human
violations by the Sri Lankan forces. This includes an unprecedented aerial
bombardment of Tamil villages and farmland, not to mention the 300,000 Tamil
displaced in recent months. The Sri Lankan navy continues to fire at Indian
fishermen with gay abandon!

China competes with the United States to establish its influence in Sri
Lanka. They would soon build a US$ 1 billion deep-water port in Humbantota
and a US$ 500 million coal-fired power plant in Puttalam. They have obtained
oil and gas exploration rights in the Gulf of Mannar - a mere 15 miles from
the Indian coast.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Trade and Development Agency has promised to fund the
development of a Sri Lankan oil and gas regulatory mechanism. More Western
petroleum companies are expected to bid for exploration rights in that
strategic area off India's southern coast.

Such a marginalization of Indian interest in the island nation would have
never happened under Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi or Vajpayee. But Sonia
Maino represents different priorities i.e. the cynical use of caste and
religion-based vote bank politics regardless of long-term national interest.

*United States:*

The NDA tested nuclear devices in 1998 and earned the belated recognition of
the United States. The UPA government is now in the process of conceding on
national interest through a flawed nuclear deal. It has put all of its
strategic crown jewels into the American basket with no reciprocity in
sight. The final version of the "123″ bilateral treaty delivered by the
Americans flies in the face of the July 18th agreement. Despite the warnings
given with the enactment of the Hyde Act, the Prime Minister had assured
that the deal depends only the 123 agreement and not the Hyde Act. But as
expected, the U.S. negotiator Nicholas Burns emphasized that any final
agreement signed by the President cannot violate the provisions of the Hyde
Act. The Americans are upping the pressure and are "impatient" at the pace
of negotiations to paraphrase the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard
Boucher. They are keen on signing an agreement in its present form by the
end of this year before the campaign for '08 U.S. elections kicks in.

The recent arrest and indictment of four Indian-Americans for allegedly
selling electronics components to Indian defense organizations in violation
of "non-proliferation, export-control laws" clearly shows the signs of
things to come. The United States apparently has no qualms over selling the
same components to Chinese companies. It appears that an electronic
component that can be sold to China cannot be transferred to India despite
it being an alleged "strategic partner" and a "natural ally" of the United
States!

All kinds of dishonest maneuvers are being used to put India on the
defensive and surreptiously introduce clauses on future weapons testing and
reprocessing of spent fuel. This nuclear deal, which was an offshoot of the
"Next Steps in Strategic Partnership", that aimed at increased collaboration
in high-tech, defense and space collaboration between the two countries has
being used to browbeat India into submission.

*Conclusion:*

What we have covered in this post is just the tip of the iceberg. The
legitimate issues we have raised here merits to be discussed and debated
inside and outside the Parliament. This administration has to made
accountable for its shortcomings and address them on a war footing before it
becomes too late to undo the damage. And yet, the principal Opposition party
has lost its chances in exploiting them. They have instead chosen to follow
the beaten path concentrating on parochial issues. The media too shares the
responsibility for not asking the tough questions expected of it in a
functioning democracy. The public needs to be informed on the perils being
faced by the nation, which will soon endanger everyone's livelihoods in a
dramatic way.

Over to our readers hoping for a lively and enlightened debate!
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